Champions League: Liverpool vs Bayern Munich most likely last-16 tie

Liverpool have almost a 40 per cent chance of drawing Bayern Munich in the Champions League last-16 – with one of the English clubs likely to get Inter Milan.

A calculation of probabilities for each pairing in Monday’s draw shows that Jurgen Klopp‘s side, who finished second in their group, could face a tough test against the German champions.

The Reds have a one in five chance of drawing Real Madrid, who beat them in last season’s final.

Liverpool could be on a collision course with Bayern Munich in the Champions League last-16 with a 40 per cent probability they will be paired together

That would bring Liverpool up against their former striker Sadio Mane, now at Bayern Munich

There is also a one in five chance that Liverpool could get Real Madrid in a repeat of last season’s final in Paris 

Chelsea, Manchester City and Tottenham, meanwhile, all topped their groups and each have roughly an 18 per cent chance of drawing Inter Milan.

The two London clubs also have a decent chance of getting Borussia Dortmund or RB Leipzig in the first knockout round.

The probability calculations, courtesy of MisterChip, comes as the 16 teams that have progressed from the group stage await their fate in the draw at 11am UK time on Monday.

The eight group winners – Napoli, Porto, Bayern, Tottenham, Chelsea, Real Madrid, Man City and Benfica – will be seeded, meaning they cannot play each other.

They will get one of the eight runners-up – Liverpool, Club Brugge, Inter Milan, Eintracht Frankfurt, AC Milan, RB Leipzig, Dortmund or Paris Saint-Germain.

Chelsea topped their group and are most likely to get one of Inter, Dortmund or Eintracht

Tottenham also finished first and now are most likely to be drawn with Inter or Dortmund

But the restrictions on not being drawn against someone from your group or own country mean that probabilities can be calculated for each pairing.

Liverpool vs Bayern is the most likely tie, with a probability of 39.86 per cent and this would see Sadio Mane face his old club.

There is a 23.92 per cent chance of Bayern drawing AC Milan and a 22.27 per cent chance of Napoli getting either Dortmund or Eintracht.

For Liverpool, the odds of getting Real Madrid stand at 20.61 per cent, with a 19.76 per cent prospect of a kinder draw against either Porto or Benfica.

For Man City, there is a marginally higher chance of getting Inter but also a 18.03 per cent chance of Eintracht and 17.39 per cent against Leipzig, both of which would be viewed as favourable.

Manchester City, who topped their group, are most likely to get Inter, Leipzig or Eintracht

Inter Milan are a likely opponent for one of the three English clubs who topped their group

Chelsea played AC Milan in their group but they could well return to San Siro to take on Inter, with that likelihood standing at 18.68 per cent.

Tottenham, meanwhile, are also most likely to get Inter with Dortmund not far behind.

Mercifully for the three English table-toppers, there is less prospect of getting PSG, who would certainly be the team to avoid.

The tie with the lowest probability is Bruges vs Benfica, with just 11.2 per cent.

The first legs of the last-16 will be played on February 14/15/21/22 with the returns on March 7/8/14/15.