What Australia have to do to qualify for the last-16 at the World Cup after shock defeat by Nigeria

Australia’s World Cup hopes are in the balance following their shock defeat by Nigeria at Brisbane Stadium on Tuesday night.

The Super Falcons overturned Emily van Egmond’s first half strike to run out 3-2 winners in Queensland in a seismic result that sends shockwaves through the tournament.

The Matildas, without Sam Kerr due to a calf injury, may be forced to rush the superstar back for the final group match against Canada, with qualification to the last-16 on the line. 

Here, Mail Sport outlines the various outcomes from the final round of group games that would see the hosts advance to the knockout stages.

The Matildas’ World Cup campaign hangs in the balance after losing to Nigeria

If the Matildas beat Canada…

Then it doesn’t matter what happens in the other group game between Nigeria and Ireland, the Aussies will go through to the last-16, in place of Canada.

However, if the Irish spring a shock upset over Nigeria, then Australia will top the group and therefore face the runners-up of Group A.

A draw between Ireland and Nigeria will also see them top the group.

If Australia are held to a draw by Canada…

Then things begin to look tricky for the Matildas. 

They would require Nigeria to lose to Ireland to draw level on four goals apiece, but it is going to be razor-tight between the two nations when determining who goes through.   

FIFA’s rules state that when two teams are tied on points, then goal difference will determine which nation goes through.   

Bear with us here. Nigeria currently hold a one-goal advantage when it comes to goal difference. Yet in the situation in which they lose to Ireland and Australia draw with Canada, the scoreline in each game will play a huge factor.

For example, if Nigeria were to lose by more than one goal and Australia draw, then the Matildas will have a superior goal difference to their rivals.

If Nigeria lose by one goal and Australia, things get even more complicated. 

FIFA’s rules state that when teams are tied on points and goal difference, then the total number of goals scored during the group stage will be the determining factor. 

Both teams are currently tied on three goals apiece in the tournament. 

So, if Nigeria lose by one goal in a high-scoring contest and earn a scoreless draw, then Nigeria would go through. Likewise, if Nigeria lose by a goal to nil and Australia earn a score draw, then the Matildas go through. 

Put simply, the Matildas need to beat Canada to go through without relying on other results

A point for Canada would see them top the group on five points. Although if Nigeria draw or beat Ireland in this permutation, then they’d remain top of the group.

If the Matildas suffer defeat to Canada…

Then it’s all over. Australia’s home World Cup will come to an abrupt end and they’ll be sent packing.

Canada would move to seven points while Nigeria are already one point ahead of them in the group, so even a defeat would see them through to the next round.